26.05.201718:11:00UTC+00U.s. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Gains Likely slowed in May, Jobless Rate to have remained at 4.4 Pct

The U.S. nonfarm payroll employment is expected to have slowed to a respectable pace in May. According to a TD Economics research report, the nonfarm payroll employment is likely to have risen 170k in May after recording a solid gain of 211k in the prior month.

This puts payrolls gains much above their breakeven rate and just below the 3-month average rate of 174k. Record low unemployment claims past survey indicators on balance and unwinding negative weather impacts continue to be supportive of sound job growth. However, ISM nonmanufacturing employment index in particular averaged a subpar 51.5 in the earlier two months, in line with job growth near to 100k. The pullback in the indicator might be transitory as some temporary factors might be at play.

The jobless rate is likely to have remained the same at 4.4 percent; however, the risk for a further drop to 4.3 percent is in line with the stable above-trend rate of job gains, stated TD Economics.

“We look for a 0.2 percent m/m increase in average hourly earnings in April, factoring in some downward bias from calendar effects. That would leave the year-on-year pace slightly higher at 2.6 percent”, added TD Economics.

At 22:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was neutral at 43.1375. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex