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Italy’s 10-year BTP yield climbed eight basis points to 3.79% on Thursday, partially reversing a 27-basis-point slump from the previous session. The rebound followed mounting doubts over the US-Iran ceasefire that sent oil prices sharply higher, reigniting inflation fears, especially in the wake of Israel’s deadliest strikes in Lebanon so far, which killed hundreds and prompted threats of retaliation from Iran. Tehran ruled out any further talks with Washington, while the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz kept the fragile truce under strain. Adding to tensions, US President Donald Trump pledged to maintain US forces near Iran until a “real agreement” is achieved. In response, markets moved to price in a more restrictive ECB stance, with at least two additional rate hikes now anticipated by the end of 2026.
