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The euro rose back above $1.17, recovering from two-week lows amid renewed optimism over potential progress in US–Iran peace talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight, according to Al Jazeera, which cited Pakistani government sources pointing to a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
At the same time, investors are turning their attention to the European Central Bank’s April policy meeting, where officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. The ECB is maintaining a wait-and-see approach as it assesses the impact of recent macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments—especially the conflict in the Middle East—relative to its earlier projections.
Despite this cautious stance, money markets are fully pricing in two quarter-point rate increases for 2026, with a possibility of a third hike by year-end.
