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The Australian dollar slipped below $0.72 but remained close to four-year highs, as a sharp rise in inflation kept expectations of an interest rate hike next week intact. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.6% year-on-year in March, just under the 4.7% consensus forecast but still above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range and at its highest level since September 2023.
The annual trimmed-mean inflation rate held at 3.3%, matching expectations, as higher fuel prices—driven by supply disruptions in the Middle East—added to already elevated price pressures. In the absence of a strong upside surprise in the data, the Australian dollar faced some selling pressure, with risk sentiment turning cautious amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Even so, markets continued to price in higher odds of a 25 bp rate increase next week.
In the US and other G7 economies, policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week while closely watching the risk that rising energy costs could reignite inflation, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid ongoing US–Iran tensions.
