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Australia’s 10-year government bond yield hovered around 5%, trading sideways near multi-decade highs as a sharp rise in inflation sustained expectations of an interest rate increase next week. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.6% year-on-year in March, just below the 4.7% consensus forecast but still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range, and the highest level since monthly CPI data began in 2025. The annual trimmed-mean inflation rate was unchanged at 3.3%, in line with expectations, as higher fuel prices linked to supply disruptions in the Middle East added to already elevated price pressures. Money markets now imply a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.35% next week, with a further move to 4.60% fully priced in by September, which would take the cash rate to its highest level since late 2010. In the US and other G7 economies, policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates on hold this week while closely watching the risk that rising energy costs could reignite inflation, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid stalled US–Iran peace talks.
