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Thailand’s industrial production grew 0.75% year-on-year in March 2026, picking up from a revised 0.09% increase in February and defying expectations of a 1.5% contraction. The rebound was underpinned by stronger output in the petroleum and automotive sectors, supported by resilient export demand. Political stability, marked by a smooth government formation, also bolstered confidence by ensuring policy continuity and the steady implementation of ongoing projects.
Nevertheless, the recovery remained constrained by persistent external headwinds. Geopolitical tensions and rising trade protectionism continued to dampen global demand and erode confidence among Thailand’s key trading partners. Elevated energy and freight costs linked to unrest in the Middle East further pushed up production expenses, while intensified import competition exerted additional pressure on domestic manufacturers. The central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, alongside its cautious forward guidance, highlighted the continued fragility of the external environment despite the stronger-than-expected industrial performance.
