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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined to 4.48% on Tuesday as markets responded to signs that a US–Iran agreement may be moving closer. Both sides have reportedly endorsed a roadmap aimed at reaching a potential peace deal within 60 days, while the US has issued a 60-day license allowing Tehran to sell oil on international markets. This development has pushed oil prices lower, easing some inflationary pressure, although price growth remains elevated. Investors will be closely watching this week’s PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A hawkish tone from the Fed last week has led markets to increase expectations of additional rate hikes this year, with the implied probability of a September rate increase rising to about 68%, up from 29% the week before.
