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The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to 4.736%, declining for a third consecutive session to its lowest level in over two months. The move followed weaker UK flash PMI data, which reinforced expectations of a slowdown in economic momentum and further reduced the likelihood of additional Bank of England rate hikes.
Political risk also eased after Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation, with Andy Burnham emerging as the frontrunner to succeed him. Markets are now focused on Burnham’s potential policy platform, his choices for key cabinet positions and the resulting implications for fiscal policy and public finances. If no significant challenger enters the race, Burnham could take office as early as July 17.
June PMI figures underscored ongoing pressure on the UK economy. The composite index slipped to 49.4, below consensus expectations and indicating contraction for a second consecutive month. Services activity softened, while manufacturing proved relatively more resilient. However, rising input costs and stubborn services inflation remain major concerns for the Bank of England.
