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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined for a second straight session to 4.45% on Wednesday, as easing tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices lower and reduced concerns about inflationary pressures. Brent crude fell back to levels last seen before the recent US-Iran confrontation, amid signs of improving tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Supporting the improved risk sentiment, President Trump stated in a Truth Social post that Iran had informed the US it would not impose tolls, insurance fees, or other charges on vessels transiting the strategic waterway.
Investors are now focused on the upcoming PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for further insight into the outlook for prices and monetary policy. At the same time, the Fed’s hawkish tone last week has led markets to raise their expectations for additional interest-rate increases this year. Traders currently see about a 68% probability of a rate hike in September, up from 29% just a week earlier.
