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Wheat futures approached $7 per bushel in late August, their highest level since July 23, as escalating hostilities between Russia and Ukraine threatened further disruption to Black Sea grain exports. The deepening conflict has heightened concerns about the capacity of these two key wheat exporters to ship their crops to global markets, just as the new harvest accelerates.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia is expected to export 46 million metric tons of wheat in the current marketing year, while Ukraine’s exports are projected at 13.5 million tons.
Adding to the upward pressure on prices, US wheat export inspections declined to 425,668 metric tons in the week ended August 20, down from 514,363 tons the previous week and sharply below the 1.05 million tons inspected in the same week a year earlier.
At the same time, the US spring wheat harvest continued to advance rapidly, with 62% of the crop harvested as of Sunday, up from 41% a week earlier and exceeding the five-year average of 52%.
