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After surprising Trump's words, in which he criticized rising Fed rates and too strong dollar against the CNY, the earlier strengthening of the US currency was reversed, and the demand for USD still did not appear on Friday's Asian session. USD/JPY was at 112.30, EUR/USD increased to 1.1670. GBP/USD returns above 1.30.
The Wall Street plummet about 0.5% and today the SP500 futures returned under 2800 points. In Tokyo similar sentiment, but Hang Seng grows 0.5 and Shanghai Composite 1.5 percent. This is due to the fact that USD/CNY erases previous increases and the Chinese currency makes up for losses. Profitability of US 10Y bonds after yesterday's Trump shot fell and is at 2.85%.
Positive moods on commodity markets. The WTI barrel is priced at just under USD 70 (August contract). An ounce of gold costs USD 1220 - in this case, the bounce after the words of Trump has been clearly corrected.
On Friday, the 20th of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, and the event of the day will be the Canadian inflation data in form of Consumer Price Index, Consumer Price Index Core, and Retail Sales. No speech is scheduled for today.
EUR/USD analysis for 20/07/2018:
Not much data will be published today that would eventually shake the calm trading conditions on this market at the end of the week. The German PPI data (measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation) were released in line with expectations at the level of 0.3% on monthly basis and 3.0% on the yearly basis, so no surprises here.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The breakout below the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1615 was only temporary and the price has bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.1590 and currently is trading around the level of 1.1660, just in the middle of the range. The price is still in a form of a broad horizontal consolidation between the levels of 1.1507 and 1.1790, so the next market direction will be more clear when one of this level is violated. Until then, the price might fluctuate in the range until the trigger fundamental event causes the breakout.
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