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On Tuesday, the 18th of September, the event calendar is light in important events, so today's session promises to be not very exciting. Apart from Mario Draghi's speech at 08:15 am GMT, not much will happen. But the night was interesting as Donald Trump announced a 10% duty on Chinese goods with a total value of USD 200 billion. As a result, the USD remains in defensive with EUR / USD going above 1.17. AUD / USD is bouncing from 0.7143 to 0.7215. The stock market at the end of the session in Asia is dominated by a positive sentiment. Japanese Nikkei225 grows 1.5% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 0.8%. WTI crude oil returned under USD 69 / b, as worries about trade disputes are fueling speculation about losses to demand. Gold is consolidated at USD 1200 / oz. Moreover, in Australia, there were minutes from the last meeting of the Australian Reserve Bank.
AUD/USD analysis for 18/09/2018:
The minutes of the September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia has been released overnight. The management of the institution agrees that there is no reason to change interest rates in the near future. The next move will probably be a rise if the economy develops in the current direction. Trade tension is currently the largest global risk for the country's economy. In addition, the management discussed the possibility of a crisis in developing countries, with particular emphasis on Turkey and Argentina. The last significant drop in the value of the Australian dollar proved to be very helpful. In the next few years, the Australian economy should grow above the long-term average. Conditions on the labor market are positive, the Bank noted a significant decline in unemployment among young people. In the next few quarters, there should be a visible increase in wages.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced sharply from the level of 0.7140 after the RBA Minutes were published and currently is trading just below the technical resistance at the level of 0.7222. Above this level, there are another two more technical resistance levels at 0.7229 and 0.7235, so it might be tough for bulls to break through at once, but it is still possible. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.7195. The momentum is strong and positive and this supports the short-term bullish outlook.
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