18.03.201901:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for March 18, 2019

Revisione a lungo termine

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EUR has recently managed to gain quite sustainable momentum after the fallback below the 1.1200 area. Despite the slowdown of the eurozone economy, such momentum-based gains over EUR are expected to lead to certain bullish pressure.

The ECB has recently cut its 2019 growth forecast to their lowest levle since 2017 which is expected to affect the long-run momentum of the EUR gains, while certain short-term gains are observed. Today, the EUR Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 17.2B from the previous figure of 15.6B along with German Buba Monthly Report. Moreover, on Thursday, the ECB Economic Bulletin and EU Economic Summit are going to be held which would be just a week ahead of the Brexit decision on March 29.

On the other hand, the Fed having unchanged bias for the interest rates indicates good strength of the economy as it is progressing as planned. The Fed has been quite optimistic with the economic growth, though a certain rate hike may lead the rate towards 3.00% to 3.50% by the end of this year. Today, the NAHB Housing Market Index report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 63 from the previous figure of 62. Ahead of the FOMC Funds Rate report to be published on Wednesday, which is expected to be unchanged at 2.50%, USD is anticipated to lose certain momentum before regaining it after the rate hike decision along with the FOMC Economic Projections and the FOMC Statement.

As of the current scenario, EUR struggling with the slowdown is expected to regain short-term momentum despite having decreasing inflation, worse economic reports, sudden economic shocks, and the Brexit effect. USD having optimistic approach amid the FOMC report may lead to impulsive non-volatile gains over EUR which may result in the price reduction in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 1.1300 area after certain counter trend bullish momentum of the last week. The price is now expected to push higher towards the 1.1450 area before pushing lower towards 1.1300 and then towards the 1.1050 support area. As the price remains below the 1.1500 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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