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EUR/USD has resumed the upside movement and now is pressuring a strong confluence area formed at the intersection of two resistance levels. We foresee a bullish bias in the short term as the USDX is expected to drop deeper. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0915, above the 1.0908 former high, but we need a confirmation that the pair will resume the bullish movement.
The USDX's drop has enabled the EUR/USD to increase. The index has slipped below 98.91 static support and is expected to drop further if it stabilizes below this level. That's why the odds are in favor of the EUR/USD growth. You should be very careful today because the US data will shake the pair. The US is to release the Prelim GDP, Prelim GDP Price Index, Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, and the Pending Home Sales. Amid such a loaded economic calendar, EUR/USD should advance further if the data disappoints later today.
EUR/USD has reached the confluence area formed between the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork and the R2 (1.0914) level. I've said in my previous analysis that the pair could approach and reach these levels if stabilizes above the Pivot Point (1.0829).
Only a valid breakout above this confluence area will confirm a further increase towards the R3 (1.0966) level, or higher towards the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork. A false breakout and a rejection from this resistance area will send the price down again.
EUR/USD could register a false breakout if the US data comes in better than expected. Some upbeat metrics will boost the USDX, which will signal the USD appreciation versus the major currencies.
We may have a great long opportunity if EUR/USD makes a valid breakout through the confluence area formed at the intersection between the median line (ml) and R2 (1.0914) level, the next upside targets are seen at R3 (1.0966), 1.1000 psychological level, and at the upper median line (uml).
A false breakout with a great separation could send the pair back towards the PP (1.0829) level.
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