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Gold has climbed again above the $1,600 psychological level, but it is still trapped below a major dynamic resistance level. I've said in the previous analysis that the yellow metal is still bullish and it could resume the upside movement and it could reach fresh new highs in the current risk aversion situation.
The COVID-19 pandemic is far from being finished, that's why Gold is more a buy than a sell, a potential global economic crisis will lead the price way higher. However, the price could still decrease a little in the short term if the USD dominates the market.
The gold price remains under pressure as long as it stays below the upper median line (UML) of the orange descending pitchfork, another false breakout or rejection could send it at least till the $1,555 static support. Gold is bullish as long as it is traded above the $1,484 static support and most important above the lower median line (lml) of the dark blue ascending pitchfork.
Gold could register an important rally today if the US data disappoints. The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 3.5% to 5.8%, the NFP could drop to -100K, while the Average Earnings Rate could increase only by 0.2%.
The gold price further increase will be confirmed by a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) of the orange descending pitchfork, the next target will be at the $1,703 previous high. It could jump way above the $1,700 psychological level if it stabilizes also above the median line (ml) of the dark blue ascending pitchfork. This scenario could take shape if the US data comes in worse than expected and if the USD loses ground versus other major currencies.
A further increase will be invalidated by another false breakout above the upper median line (UML) and if the price drops and stabilizes below the $1,600 level, below the UML and below the median line (ml). The bullish pressure is still high after the has failed to approach and reach the $1,555 level in the last attempt.
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