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GBP/USD is trading at 1.2455 and it seems a further trajectory is unclear after the failure to make another higher high. The pair has shown exhaustion signs lately, but we still don't have confirmation that the price will develop a corrective phase.
The price has developed two reversal patterns, Head&Shoulders and Double Top, but it is premature to talk about a larger drop as long as the price is trading above the critical support levels. The UK Final Services PMI and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, and the Final Services PMI data will be decisive for the GBP/USD. Some good US data could validate the reversal, while poor figures could bury the dollar.
GBP/USD has increased after the failure to stabilize below the 50% retracement level, but unfortunately, it has failed to reach the 1.2647 high and to close above the R1 (1.2635) level. As you can see on the H4 chart, GBP/USD has developed a potential Head & Shoulders and a Double Top.
The reversal patterns will be confirmed only if GBP/USD declines and if it stabilizes, valid breakdown, below the 50% (1.2302) level. The near-term support is seen at the median line (ML) of the major ascending pitchfork, at the S1 (1.2352), and at the dark blue uptrend line (Neckline), so if the price takes out these obstacles, it should develop a major drop.
GBP/USD is bullish. The uptrend will be valid as long as the pair stays above the median line (ML), S1 (1.2352) and above the dark blue uptrend line. However, a further increase will be confirmed only if the price makes a valid breakout above the weekly R1 (1.2635) level and above the 1.2647 high. The pair will try to approach the 1.3199 if this scenario takes shape.
The reversal, a significant drop, will be confirmed if the price decreases and if it makes a valid breakdown below the 50% (1.2302) retracement level. If the chart patterns are confirmed, the 23.5% (1.1829) level will represent a potential downside target.
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