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EUR/USD has finally managed to escape from two major patterns and now is signaling a further increase and a reversal in the short term. The USD was punished by the USDX's further drop, the index has fallen in the negative territory, so it is expected to resume the bearish movement, EUR/USD is expected to increase in this situation.
You should be careful today as the US is to release some high impact data, the Prelim GDP is expected to drop by 4.8%, the Durable Goods Orders could register a 19.0% decrease, while the Core Durable Goods Orders indicator may drop by 14.8% in April. The Unemployment Claims could decrease a little in the previous week, from 2438K to 2100K, while the Pending Home Sales is expected to remain deep in the negative area, a 15.0% decrease is predicted.
EUR/USD could move quickly towards new highs if the US data will disappoint later today, some good numbers could bring the pair down to test and retest the broken upside obstacles before it will resume the upside movement.
The Daily chart shows us that the price has managed to escape from the triangle pattern and now it has managed to breakout and to close above the median line (ML) and above the 1.0990 range resistance.
I've said in all my latest analysis that the median line (ML) represents a critical dynamic resistance, a valid breakout above it would signal a significant increase towards the 1.1200 and higher towards the upper median line (UML).
The first target is seen at the R1 (1.1084) level, so only a valid breakout will lead the quote towards the 1.1200, 1.1215, R2 (1.1217) levels. I've said yesterday that Tuesday's bullish candle has indicated a breakout and a further increase.
EUR/USD price can rise very easily without a retest of broken levels (ML, 1.0990, 1.1) and could approach the next upside targets. Still, a consolidation above the 1.0990 - 1.1000 area will give us a great chance to buy EUR/USD, having 1.1200 - 1.1215 area as a target in the first instance.
The extended range breakout has signaled an approx 200 pips growth for the upcoming period. The Stop Loss should be placed below the PP (1.0905), or maybe below the 1.0870 previous low, for now, only a consolidation (tests, retests) above the 1.0990 will give us the chance to move the Stop Loss higher.
The upper median line (UML) could attract the price in time if the dollar index will continue to drop towards the 98.00 level. A further increase could be invalidated only if EUR/USD will register a major bearish engulfing today after the US data will be published and if the breakout above the 1.0990 - 1.1 area will be invalidated.
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