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The euro continues to rally against the US dollar and has reached a record high since September 2018. The euro is growing thanks to the approval of the €750 billion Recovery Fund. However, the single currency is slightly weaker than the Norwegian and Swedish krona, but rose by 0.7% to $1.1745.
ING analysts hope that the rate will rise to 1.20, despite the fact that the US dollar looks oversold. Experts at Commerzbank claim that interest in buying EUR/USD will increase amid a falling dollar.
However, Societe Generale experts are not so optimistic. It is too early to say that Europe has recovered and there are no more threats to its economy. Thus, in Spain, a new outbreak of coronavirus was registered again. Great Britain reacted immediately to the situation in Spain and closed transport links with the country. This is terrible for the United Kingdom as the country's economy depends heavily on tourism.
The number of COVID-19 infections is also on the rise in Japan and Hong Kong, where the situation was calm until recently. Taking into account these events, the US dollar has a chance to recoup loses, even though the epidemiologic situation in the US is alarming. Societe Generale noted that the EU economy depends on exports and tourism. Experts doubt that Europe will be able to survive the rapid and prolonged growth of the euro. In case of a second lockdown, the euro's peak will turn into a fall.
Tensions between the United States and China continue to weigh on the US dollar, which has hit its lowest level since September 2018. Moreover, uncertainty and fears about the US economy are forcing investors to consider the yen and the Swiss franc as their preferred safe currencies.
The US dollar index is falling due to internal economic problems that are destroying its role as a safe haven. In a day, the American currency fell by 0.6% to 93.777.
Investors are desperate to hope for a quick recovery in the US economy as the coronavirus rages across the country. More than 4 million people in the USA were infected with the Chinese virus, 150 thousand died. This is a quarter of all coronavirus deaths in the world. Moreover, in America, the number of applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased. Congress will discuss new support measures soon.
Commerzbank analysts say the dollar would benefit from the US-China trade conflict. However, the situation has changed. What is happening now is a real trade war. US policy may undermine relations with China and some other European countries.
Fed's leaders will meet to discuss further measures of supporting the US economy hinting at the benefits of an average inflation target. It will allow the market rates to stay low over a long period of time.
The Swiss currency reached a five-year high of 0.9167. The US dollar lost 0.8% against the yen, which strengthened to a four-month high of 105.265.
Based on the fact that the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc strengthened, it is possible that investors are looking for new safe-haven currencies. Markets really need it. Neil Jones, head of currency sales at Mizuho, is sure that the massive US dollar sell-off will work in favor of the Japanese yen.
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