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Weak inflation data last week put serious pressure on the US dollar, which continued to decline against a number of world currencies.
Also, the attractiveness of the US dollar has declined due to the fact that a number of Fed officials, speaking last week, all voiced their unanimity about the need to keep interest rates at the previous levels, while in early summer the majority advocated for their further increase.
According to the futures market, traders expect a rate hike in December, with a probability of 38%, while on Friday, before the release of inflation data, this probability was 47%.
According to the Ministry of Labor of the country, inflation in the US in July this year remained rather restrained. Thus, the consumer price index rose by only 0.1% compared to the previous month, while economists were expecting 0.2%. The basic consumer price index, which does not include prices for volatile categories also increased by 0.1% compared with June, while economists expected 0.2%.
Compared to the same period in 2016, consumer prices increased by 1.7%, as did the base index.
Such weak data on inflation, most likely, will force the Fed to reconsider its attitude to interest rates already at the September meeting of the committee. More restrained statements can negatively affect the US dollar.
Fed representative, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the current level of interest rates is appropriate and low inflation mean that the Fed will have to wait for the increase in interest rates. According to Kaplan, at present, there is no need to cool the economy by raising rates.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, its return to the resistance level of 1.1820 was not surprising, the breakthrough in the intermediate area of 1.1830 will lead to an increase in long positions in the trading tool of large investors, which will update to 1.1890 and reach 1.1930.
Today, there are no important fundamental data, so it is likely that the day will be held at a low volume with a small market volatility and the main trend movements will begin tomorrow.
The Japanese yen ignored data that Japan's economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year was much better than economists' forecasts. According to the report, the economy grew by 4% against the background of strong spending by consumers and companies compared to the same period in 2016, compared to the 1.0% growth in the first quarter of this year.
Economists predicted that the country's GDP growth in the reporting period will be 2.5%.
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