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Yesterday's protocols of the European Central Bank damaged the European currency, as it showed that the ECB was concerned about the strengthening of the single European currency this year.
The sharp growth of the euro by more than 12% this year creates a high probability of problems with exports of goods in the 3rd quarter of this year, which will seriously affect the economic growth indicators, which are so far from ideal.
If the propensity to grow the euro does not weaken, it is unlikely that the ECB will take any decisive steps towards the normalization of monetary policy in September this year. If no relevant statements are made by the Central Bank, we can expect a decline in demand for the European currency and the continuation of its downward correction paired with the US dollar in early autumn of this year.
The demand for the US dollar is also limited by the slower than expected tightening of the Fed's policy. Given that the July minutes of the meeting of the committee failed to shed light on further plans to tighten monetary policy and reduce the balance, most likely, rely on the serious upward potential of the US dollar before the beginning of this autumn is also not worth it.
Yesterday, the statement was made by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan, who noted that he expects US GDP growth this year by about 2%. Kaplan also drew attention to the fact that he wants to see more progress in achieving the target inflation rate before raising rates.
As for the timing of the beginning of the program to reduce the balance, the representative of the Federal Reserve noted only that it will begin very soon. Kaplan called for patience in the issue of interest rates, most likely, meaning that you can count only on one more increase and then, at the end of this year.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the trade clearly appears in the wide lateral channel of 1.1680-1.1790. If you approach the upper border of the channel, you can see the short positions for the euro. A similar situation for purchases, in case of descent in the area of support of 1.1680.
Today, there are no important fundamental data, therefore, trade will be mostly restrained, possibly in a narrower range of 1.1760-1.1700.
In the afternoon, you can pay attention to data on the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. It is expected to grow to 94 points in August this year.
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