12.01.201809:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Surprise from the ECB

Revisione a lungo termine

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Yesterday, everything was against the dollar, as all macroeconomic data came out completely different than expected. First, data on industrial production in Europe came out better than expected, and although growth rates slowed from 3.9% to 3.2%, they expected that they would slow down to 3.0%. Moreover, the previous data were revised for the better at 3.7%. Then, pumped up data on producer prices in the US was released. Its growth rates slowed from 3.1% to 2.6% with a forecast of 3.0%.This is in the lead-up to today's inflation data. However, the main driving force was the content of the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which indicated that due to the improvement of the economic situation in Europe, the regulator could review the parameters of the monetary policy at the beginning of this year.

Today, negative trends on the dollar may remain. It is expected that inflation will slow from 2.2% to 2.1% but, given yesterday's data on producer prices, the results may be worse. It is also expected that commercial reserves will grow by 0.3%, which does not add optimism. The growth rate of retail sales should slow from 5.8% to 5.6%.

However, it is important to note that the dollar is pretty oversold so the potential for its further easing is somewhat limited.

The EUR/USD pair will rise to 1.2075.

The GBP/USD pair may rise to 1.3600.

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