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The Japanese yen ignored data on consumer price growth in Japan that spoke of the serious demand for the yen from the big players against the backdrop of the latest serious shocks in the stock and currency markets, forcing investors to return to safe-haven assets.
It should be noted that the Central Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the level of inflation and is trying in every way to achieve a more active growth. The recent major strengthening of the Japanese yen is unlikely to have a positive impact on the future prospects for CPI growth.
Judging by the January indicators, the situation with consumer prices looks good but there's, more to it. According to the report, basic consumer prices in Japan continued their growth in January 2018 but annual inflation is still far from the target level of the Central Bank, which is at 2%.
The consumer price index in Japan grew by 1.4% for the month of January after an increase of 1.0% in December 2017. However, more attention is being given to the indicators of the base index.
According to the report of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, the base consumer price index in January, which does not take into account volatile prices for fresh food, rose by 0.9% compared to the same period last year. It is important to note that in December, the index also increased by 0.9%. Economists expected the index to grow by 0.8%.
The main objective of the Governor of the Central Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, is to achieve the target inflation rate. However, at present, the Bank of Japan can not "boast" about their indicators unlike other central banks of the world who demonstrated their plans by going in this direction. If you take the above index without taking into account the growth in energy prices, it looks even worse as growth was 0.4% against 0.3% in December.
As for the technical picture of USDJPY pair, after a breakdown at the level of 107.70 and the update at the range of 105.40, there is a small technical upward correction that will form a new, larger downward wave following the 107.70 level test as resistance. The main goal of the sellers in the medium term will be the areas of 104.25 and 102.00.
The New Zealand dollar ignored good data on retail sales growth at the end of last year and continued its fall in tandem with the US dollar.
According to the report of the statistical agency, retail sales, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, in New Zealand in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 1.9% while economists expected an increase of only 1.7%. Without correction, in real terms, retail sales grew by 1.7%.
The return of the NZDUSD pair to the middle of the channel, after an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at the highs around 0.7500, once again indicates the absence of a serious demand without the support of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Only an increase in interest rates will make it possible to break above the level of 0.7500 and continue the trend formed in October last year.
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