27.02.201808:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ungrounded fears of markets

EUR / USD, GBP / USD.

The first day of the week in the markets went quietly. There was no important news and the main trading instruments continued the trend in their movements: S & P 500 added 1.18%, the euro gained 24 points, and the pound grew by 5 points. The optimistic mood of investors was not affected even by the sale of new homes in the US, which showed a decrease from 643 thousand to 593 thousand for the month of January. However, the previous indicator was raised from 625 thousand. Mario Draghi's speech to the Economic Committee of the European Parliament did not give anything new on the information field. Also on attention are more interesting topics: the first speech in Congress by the new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell that will happen today and the parliamentary elections in Italy on Sunday. It is expected for Powell to ask a certain vector regarding the development of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. However, we do not think this is the case. This will be a semi-annual report of the Fed on monetary policy and previously, the Fed chiefs did not make any statements on these speeches, only answered questions in a streamlined manner. In the Italian elections, it is unlikely that any party, or rather an electoral bloc, will receive a majority. Italy will again face the problem of a technical government. Whether it will withstand the pressure of the euro will depend on the mood of investors. However, there is a long period ahead for the formation of intra-parliamentary coalitions, which investors do not want to wait for. The current German example with protracted negotiations show that these non-market processes have little effect on markets. In any case, until the debate on the release of Italy from the EU or even from the eurozone ("League of the North", "5 Stars") happens, it is too early to talk about this.

Today, the volume of orders for durable goods in the US for the month of January will be published. The forecast is -2.4% against 2.8% in December. The root index of orders (excluding transportation) can grow at a possible 0.4%. The trade balance for January is expected at the level of December which is -72.3 billion dollars. Wholesale stocks for the same month are expected to increase by 0.3%. The index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board for February is expected to increase from 125.4 to 126.2. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Richmond can show growth from 14 to 15 points while house price growth in December can go up by 0.4%.

In general, risks for the markets are not yet apparent. We expect the euro to grow in the range of 1.2520 / 40 and the British pound to rise to 1.4070.

USD / JPY.

The restoration of the yen, which began on the 16th, continues to be under control. At the moment, the price is kept in the technical range of 106.60-107.40 with the support of the stock market. Yesterday, the Dow Jones added 1.58% while the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.78%. Today, in the Asian session, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index grew by 1.23% but the yen can not break out of the specified technical range with the uncertainty of the dollar itself due to the mounting fears about the speech of J. Powell and the parliamentary elections in Italy. The Chinese stock index China A50 today lost 1.28%.

Tomorrow, Japan's important economic indicators that could show weakening may emerge. Industrial production in January may show a decline of 4.1% and retail sales on an annualized basis may decline from 3.6% y / y to 2.6% y / y. We are waiting for the development of the situation in the range of 106.60-107.40. This means that we expect a lateral trend. As the main scenario, we assume that investors will withstand the worsening of macroeconomic indices and will continue to rise to 108.00 and further to the range of 108.50 / 80.