18.04.201804:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The RBA is leaning toward raising interest rates

The Australian dollar continued to trade in a narrow lateral channel after a significant wave of growth last week. The publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia did not lead to serious changes in the market, as traders and investors found nothing new in them.

The RBA continues to adhere to the previous tone of its statements regarding interest rates and their prospects. The main point in the minutes is shifted to the next change in interest rates, which, as the board expects, will be in the form of an increase, not a fall, as predicted earlier. Despite this, in the short term there are no strong arguments in favor of raising rates.

The RBA also expects that the decline in unemployment will be a gradual process, as will the return of inflation in the range of 2-3%.

As for the GDP, the regulator expects that the growth potential in 2018 will be much higher than in 2017. However, risk factors remain like the higher rate of the Australian dollar, which will slow GDP growth and keep inflation.

News on China's economic growth has also left an impression on the markets. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's gross domestic product in the 1st quarter of 2018 grew by 6.8% compared to the same period the previous year. Economists had expected GDP growth of 6.7%. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, when China's economy grew by 1.6%, growth was only 1.4%, indicating a slowdown.

As for the technical picture of the AUDUSD pair, a lot depends on whether buyers will be able to move beyond the resistance level of 0.7800, above which one can expect an update of new highs of 0.7840 and 0.7870. In the event of a return to the support level of 0.7760, pressure on the Australian dollar could lead to a correction in the areas of support at 0.7720 and 0.7670.

Despite the good performance of the labor market in the UK, the British pound failed to gain a foothold on the monthly highs it achieved on Tuesday morning. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment in the UK in February this year fell to a further low. Also, there was a growth in wages, which will stimulate the economy due to a potential increase in public spending.

According to the report, the unemployment rate in the UK from December 2017 to February 2018 fell to 4.2%, compared with 4.3% for the period from September to November. Also noted was the growth of wages, which for the period mentioned above had increased by 2.8%. This happened due to the good growth of wages in the construction sector.