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All attention for today will be focused on the next meeting of the European Central Bank and the press conference of its President Mario Draghi.
Despite the fact that this meeting is an interim, recent statements by the head of the ECB on the possibility of postponing the deadline for the asset buyback program forced many investors and traders to take a more attentive view of today's meeting. The new economic forecasts will most likely not be presented at the meeting but changes in the rhetoric of Mario Draghi can seriously affect the rate of the European currency.
A number of economists believe that the president of the ECB will not make new statements that will support the euro after a significant decline has been observed this week.
The whole question is how Mario Draghi perceived the recent weak economic data of the eurozone. It is specifically about the question of slowing the growth of inflation and GDP in the first quarter of this year.
If the rhetoric of the ECB president becomes softer, the pressure on the European currency will increase significantly, which will lead to its further reduction to the area of support levels of 1.2120 and 1.2080. The main goal of the sellers will be the lows of January this year in the areas of 1.1980 and 1.1940.
If the rhetoric of Mario Draghi does not change, then some speculative support for the euro will lead to a return to the resistance area of 1.2220 and 1.2250. The rush of this levels will open the opportunity to strengthen risk assets in the areas of 1.2270 and 1.2290.
The quotes of oil remained unchanged after yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy on the growth of reserves for the reporting period in the US.
According to the data, commercial oil reserves for the week from April 14 to 20 increased by 2.2 million barrels to 429.7 million barrels, while economists had expected a reduction in reserves of 1.7 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks also increased by 840,000 barrels to 236 million barrels, while analysts expected a fall by 600,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels to 122.7 million barrels. Economists had expected a decline in stocks of only 900,000 barrels. The loading of oil refining capacities decreased to 90.8%.
As for the technical picture of oil, as already noted, much will depend on the breakthrough of the level of 70 USD per barrel on the WTI brand. If it takes place, we can expect a larger upward trend with the update of the highs to around 73 and 77 USD per barrel.
If you do not get to the $ 70 range in the near future, a downward correction may lead to a decrease to support area of 62.50 and 58 USD per barrel.
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