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EUR / USD
On Thursday, the data on macroeconomic statistics were somewhat in favor of the dollar, but investors preferred to take a time-out before Friday's key publication (especially in the light of the recent Fed meeting, which was especially closely focused on employment), data on labor in the US.
The price index of producers in the euro area in March showed an increase of 0.1%. The base consumer price index in the euro area for April fell from 1.0% y / y to 0.7% y / y, the total CPI decreased from 1.3% y / y to 1.2% y / y.
The European Commission yesterday published an economic forecast before the end of the year. The economy is expected to grow by 2.3%, for the next year only 2.0% due to the risk of overheating of the US economy due to economic reforms there. Probably, this forecast is primarily connected with fears of trade frictions with the United States.
In the US, only ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a deterioration. The index for April was 56.8 against 58.8 in March. Other indicators showed moderate growth. The trade balance for March was -49.0 billion dollars against the forecast of -50 billion. Labor costs in the 1st quarter added 2.7% against 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Labor productivity over the same period increased by 0.7% against 0.0% in the previous quarter. Factory orders increased 1.6% in March. The number of applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 211 thousand against a record low 209 thousand a week earlier and the forecast of 225 thousand.
From the European data today the final evaluation of the PMI Services PMI for April will be released - 0.5% forecast vs. 0.1% earlier, also the retail sales figure for March - 0.5% forecast vs. 0.1% in April.
In the US, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector for April is projected at 190,000, compared with 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate may drop from 4.1% to 4.0%. The average hourly wage for April is expected to grow by 0.2%. Later in the evening, representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank William Dudley (FRB of New York) and John Williams (FRB San Francisco) will speak. The speeches have not been announced, but it is possible that they will comment on some aspects of the meeting that took place on Wednesday, which may support investors' attention to further rhythmic rate hikes.
We are waiting for the euro in the range of 1.1820 / 35.
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