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EUR / USD
On Thursday, the euro managed to slightly adjust up mainly on technical factors. Investors fixed the short-term sales after the previous two-day currency decline. This helped the declining yields of US government bonds and worse-than-expected US economic data. The yields on 2-year securities, most responsive to changes in the mood of rates, for two days fell from 2.570% to 2.508%, for 10-year in this time, the yield decreased from 3.058% to 2.977%, which eventually led to a decline in market expectations of an increase in the rate at the June meeting from 100% to 95%.
The released protocols of the ECB showed that the regulator, without changing attitudes towards the impending curtailment of incentives, began to worry more seriously about the political factors of instability. Extension of this the ECB representative Peter Pret. He pointed out the intention of the Italian government to abolish the pension reform, to weaken fiscal policy and increase costs, as well as to strengthen trade wars.
Germany's GDP in the final assessment for the first quarter in the assessment did not change, 0.3%. The consumer climate index in Germany GfK for June fell from 10.8 to 10.7. But the US data was pumped up. The number of applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 234 thousand against the expectation of 220 thousand, the sale of houses in the secondary real estate market in April fell from 5.60 million to 5.46 million while waiting for 5.56 million, the index of house prices in March rose by only 0.1% against the forecast of 0.5%. As a result, the stock index S & P500 fell by 0.20% and the euro added 24 points.
US President Trump accused North Korean leader Kim Jong-un of angry hostility and canceled the meeting scheduled for June 12 in Singapore. The hostility of Kim Jong-un was the demand of the US to give certain guarantees and a plan that would support the promises. This event also limited the corrective growth of the euro.
Today, the index of sentiment in German business circles Ifo for May may show a decrease from 102.1 to 102.0. In the US, the volume of orders for durable goods for April is expected to decrease by 1.3%, but the Core Indicator (Core Durable Goods) is projected to increase by 0.5%. At 14:20 London time in Sweden, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Perhaps he will touch on monetary policy, but if the current policy is confirmed, we can expect a speech in the spirit of "3.5 rate hikes".
We are waiting for the euro at 1.1600.
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