21.06.201808:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro Moving in a Downtrend

EUR / USD

The euro fell by 15 points yesterday. Probably, the quotas of the cartel under the potential risk of supply shortage on the world market is expected to increase during the opening of the OPEC + meeting today. In case of a positive outcome, oil prices may go down and the dollar will continue to strengthen, accordingly, which will exert strong pressure on world currencies.

At the conference in Portugal where Mario Draghi and Jerome Powell are present, their speeches were neutral. Even politicians reservedly spoke on the issues of trade wars. Sales of homes in the US secondary real estate market fell against expectations of growth: 5.43 million versus 5.45 million in April, and the forecast was 5.52 million.

Significant economic data on the euro area was not released today. According to the US, a weekly report will be issued on the number of applications for unemployment benefits which shows a forecast of 220 thousand against 218 thousand previously. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia for the current month may fall from 34.4 to 28.9. Growth is projected at April house prices by 0.3% and the index of leading indicators in May came in at 0.4%. At 9:15 London time, the stress test results of the largest US banks will be published.

From the technical side, the changes have been insignificant. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached positive values, but at the same time the balance price line (red) fell, and touches the trend line which increases the pressure from above. We are waiting for a break on the level of 1.1510 and further movement towards 1.1380 - support of the trend line (see daily chart).

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.