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EUR / USD
Last Friday, US President Donald Trump further strengthened verbal pressure on the dollar, repeating the previously stated thesis about the unequal trade relations through the exchange of national currencies and interest rates. However, despite such a statement, Trump did not explain what he wants and as a result there will either be a lower Fed rate or an increase in the ECB rate. It was clear that China was deliberately lowering the national currency rate, for which Trump threatened to impose increased duties on all Chinese goods in full (an additional $ 500 billion). The Fed, on the criticism of Trump, answered through Bullard that he would continue the planned policy.
The euro area's balance of payments for May fell from 29.6 billion euros to 22.4 billion euros, while waiting for a decline to 27.2 billion euros. However, what's confusing is not so much as the dynamics of compression, but the fact that Current Account falls for the fourth consecutive month, which was not in time of the mortgage crisis in 2008.
The euro rose to the lower limit of the range of 1.1750 / 90. Despite the fact that formally, the price was fixed above the trend line of Kruzenshtern (blue), the upcoming growth, if it will, looks extremely heavy. After overcoming this resistance, the price opens up a new range of 1.1840 / 60.
Today, the consumer confidence index in the euro area for the current month is expected without a change in -1 point. Sales of homes in the US secondary real estate market for June are expected to increase from 5.43 million to 5.46 million.
On the four-hour chart, the price firmly entrenched above the indicator lines while the curve of the Marlin line at the very top does not yet indicate a reversal of the whole trend. Probably, the price will make an attempt to test for the strength of the range 1.1750 / 90 even against the economic data coming out today. However, it may not do so and just go down on Trump's formal rhetoric because that's how his Chinese media are currently perceiving his threats. A number of investment funds said that they would not adjust the strategy until the details of the expected increase in duties of $ 500 billion became clear. At the same time, other institutional investors adhere to the idea that the US wins in the trade war. We adhere to this idea as well, so we see the weakening of the dollar not in the context of a trade war, but in the context of Trump's discontent with monetary policy. We believe that Trump's unfounded statement is made for some kind of distraction, therefore, we can not rely on him. One of the pressing problems of the United States is Iranian oil and preparations for a military scenario in this country.
In fact, the situation has not been determined to date, and the situation should be clarified. The current support is the range of 1.1680-1.1700.
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