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The mid-term elections in the US ended, and the markets felt relieved. Many thought that the separation of Congress and the prospects for a legislative impasse would put pressure on the dollar, but excessive emotionality was unjustified.
"We hope that next year we will be able to work together to improve the quality of life of the American people, including in the field of economic growth, infrastructure, trade, reducing the cost of prescription drugs. Democrats will offer their projects in the areas of infrastructure and health, and we will come to an agreement," Donald Trump expressed readiness for negotiations, and the markets liked it.
Life goes on, the Fed will continue to increase rates, and the Democrats, most likely, will not resist too much tax cuts for the middle class.
JP Morgan analysts write because Trump cannot rely on either the Central Bank or Congress at this time, he needs to improve relations with China in order to maintain economic growth. This is a bullish factor for EUR / USD. Beijing is ready for dialogue and, judging by the reduction in gold and foreign exchange reserves in October, is doing everything possible to keep the yuan afloat. Having overcome the levels of 1.13 and 1.15, the main currency pair returned to its original positions and concentrated on the more important today, the FOMC meeting.
Regarding the leadership of the regulator, after the strong statistics on the labor market in October, they are unlikely to make any serious changes in the rhetoric compared with the last meeting. Then the statement of the Central Bank about its readiness to switch temporarily to a moderately-tough policy encouraged the American currency. Now traders are thinking about buying or selling a dollar?
According to Nordea analysts, the American Central Bank has no compelling reasons for changing rhetoric. Increasing the rate once a quarter by 25 bp still remains the basic forecast of the bank. On Thursday, the rate is likely to remain the same, traders need to pay attention to the totality of the press release, where officials are likely to hint at a rate increase in December by 25 bp. It is noted that this growth rate has not yet fully incorporated into market expectations. The probability of an increase from betting futures is estimated at 68%. If the Fed keeps tough rhetoric, it will inspire the dollar, which today partially restores its position after a moderate decline in the results of elections to the US Congress.
The deterrent for the dollar is the lack of support from both houses of Congress for the White House's host. This reduces its ability to further stimulate the economy. The newly elected congressmen will start working on January 3, 2019, which means that a more intense atmosphere in Congress and in relations between Trump and Congress will begin to be felt only at the beginning of the year. Particularly emotionally, the issue of increasing the ceiling of US government debt, which is traditional for the beginning of the year, will probably be discussed.
It is expected that a combination of factors will weaken the position of the dollar early next year. The currency pair EUR / USD may move closer to 1.19 by mid-2019.
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