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Something unbelievable happened to the pound yesterday, and the reason lies solely in the statements regarding Brexit. At first, the pound continued to grow amid expectations of signing an agreement between the UK and the European Union, which the cabinet did. Then it rushed down as due to inflation data, which showed its invariance instead of growth, and thanks to the statements of a number of parliamentarians. The fact is that even though the government signed the agreement, it will enter into force only after its adoption by parliament. There can be difficulties, since Theresa May, in fact, relies on a minority of parliamentarians. The majority is extremely hostile towards the Prime Minister, since, in their opinion, the agreement contradicts the interests of Great Britain. In general, they say, Theresa May is cursing in front of Europe and making concessions, instead of demanding that an agreement is drafted, which primarily meets the economic interests of Great Britain. Well, what to do if many still experience phantom pains due to the loss of the empire. So, these same parliamentarians said that today they will submit a question of a vote of no confidence to the Prime Minister. So, we can expect an incredible show, and, instead of a vote on the agreement, everything can turn into a government resignation and the announcement of the date of early elections. However, at the end of the day, the pound completely won back all the losses, because it is not clear how everything will turn out, and a number of other parliamentarians, who are also hostile to Theresa May, nevertheless declared that the worst development should be avoided.
It is worth noting that the single European currency reacted extremely positively to the signing of an agreement between the UK and the European Union, although the second estimate of GDP for the third quarter confirmed a slowdown in economic growth from 2.2% to 1.7%. Yes, and the growth rate of industrial production remained unchanged. However, the apparent uncertainty in the United Kingdom scares many. The current text of the agreement is rather in the interests of the European Union, and if the British parliament does not accept it and the "divorce" takes place without an agreement, then Europe will even more likely benefit from it even more. Against this background, data on inflation in the United States almost imperceptibly passed, showing its growth from 2.3% to 2.5%, which removes any doubts about the rate of increase in the refinancing rate by the Federal Reserve System.
Although the main events will unfold in the British Parliament, it is worth paying attention to data on retail sales in the UK and the United States. In the first case, their growth rates should remain unchanged, while in the second, a slight slowdown is expected. But what happens today in the UK is simply unpredictable, and completely different options are possible.
The pound / dollar currency pairs showed high volatility on the information and news background, where the amplitude relative to the 1.3000 / 1.3050 range is more than 150 points, ultimately remaining within this level. Probably assume a temporary stay in this range, until the next burst from the information background.
The euro/dollar currency pair, like its fellow pound / dollar, was exposed to the information background, as a result of overcoming the level of 1.1300 in the upward direction. Now, the quotation is already at 1.1340, where there is an attempt to slow down, but the ambiguity of Brexit, after all, worries investors, and you can expect everything.
The general recommendation on two currency pairs is to take a waiting position and watch what is happening from the outside. There is a risk of a pulse stroke both up and down.
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