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Gold (XAU/USD) is having a solid attempt at recovery but has been rejected at the 1,800 level for the fourth time in two weeks. Tuesday's move saw the commodity correct back towards its key support. Part of this move lower is attributed to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments about the possibility of rising interest rates in the long term to avoid an overheating economy.
XAU/USD had already bounced off the area surrounding 1,800 and was heading lower before Yellen's speech, after which the selloff intensified. Given the lack of a move in bond yields, one could argue what really moved markets in yesterday's session.
Regardless of the effect of her words, there is strong confirmation that 1,800 continues to be a tough area of resistance for buyers to break. The sideways consolidation seen in the past two weeks could either see buyers gathering momentum to attempt another break higher, or it could be weakening the ability to break above this key resistance, with another possible turn lower.
If XAU/USD is able to close above 1,800 then there is likely to be strong momentum to get the commodity towards 1,850. Along the way, there is likely to be some strong resistance, with the 38.2% Fibonacci (1,827) being a good candidate. A break above 1,831-45 would put XAU/USD back above the ascending trendline from the March 2021 lows, which would likely consolidate bullish momentum further.
If unable to break its key resistance, we could see gold drifting lower again, towards key support at 1,765-55.
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