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On Wednesday, the British Parliament voted on a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May. The initiative of the "48 group" (the necessary number of letters from conservative deputies to initiate a vote of no confidence) failed — May received the support of 200 deputies from the required minimum of 158. And, as we expected earlier, several conservatives changed their decision at the last moment and voted in support of May. This could mean that Brexit will take place with a good deal. The Parliament must ratify the agreement by January 21.
Thus, the tension for a month is reset. But the pound does not have a clear outlook for the growth scenario. As before, it cannot rise in the medium term only on one news, because it only means that the situation on Brexit has not actually changed, so our scenario of the pound falling "on the fact" (exit from the EU) remains.
In the current situation, we expect a reversal of the price from the Krusenstern line on the four-hour chart, the withdrawal of the price under the embedded price channel line (1.2528) and a further decline to 1.2400.
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