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GBP/USD
On Wednesday, the British pound became the market driver. The Labour Party's statement, on readiness to support the agreement with the EU in order to avoid withdrawing from the bloc without a deal, inspired investors with optimism. On the one hand, it is surprising why the opposition did not adhere to this position before the decisive vote, on the other hand, our scenario about the supposed change of opinion by the Labour Party begins to be realized. Now we are waiting for the execution of the decisive scenario - the fall of the British pound after the decision to withdraw from the EU with the deal. The basis of this movement will serve as an understanding of the economic moment - the British economy will not receive benefits after leaving the EU.
Today, market leadership can go to the euro. At 12:30 London time, Mario Draghi will speak at a conference on the ECB meeting. His speech is expected to be neutral. Yesterday's purchases of the pound took place at volumes above the average, so even if the euro declines, we do not expect a sharp drop in the pound. The situation of the British pound is convenient to take a waiting position, sliding down the line supporting the price channel of the daily timeframe. Fixing under the line (below 1.3028) will allow the price to return to the support of the Krusenstern line of the daily chart (1.2845).
In the absence of a transition of leadership to the euro on the ECB meeting, the British pound may continue to grow in the target range of 1.3216 / 57, determined by the highs of October 12 and September 26.
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