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The latest US macroeconomic data package published on Thursday was extremely disappointing. The volume of retail sales fell by 1.2% in January while the growth of forecast was at 0.2%. Also, the producer price growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.0% in January. A weak data was a complete surprise to the market as retail showed the worst result since 2008.
Weak consumer demand will lead to a slowdown in the economy. The Atlanta Fed has sharply lowered its forecast for GDP from 2.7% to 1.5% by the fourth quarter.
The slowdown in consumer demand coincided with the growth of the national debt ceiling above 22 trillion and now, the US government needs to recalculate the revenue part of the budget because if consumer demand is slowing down. Tax cuts will also be inevitable.
Published in the period reporting companies for 4 square in 2018, there are also plenty of surprises in general and more often they are negative. Shares of Under Armor Inc., Western Union and Seagate Technology subsided after the publication of data as they turned out to be worse than forecasts. Stock prices of the top Coca-Cola brand showed the worst one-day dynamics since 2008 what was assumed quite recently, the threat of recession is getting closer.
Negotiations on a trade agreement in Beijing will continue today. US representatives Stephen Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer will meet with Chairman Xi Jinping today. The recent news flow indicates that both parties are still far away from each other and if this conclusion is confirmed, the markets will face a sharp wave of demand for defensive assets. Asian stocks are trading in the red zone on Monday morning.
Trump is expected to sign an expenditure bill. On midnight US time, tensions remain high since Trump announced his intention to impose a state of emergency in the country.
Today, a report will be published on import and export prices, as well as on industrial production, while forecasts suggest a slight increase. But still, if the data turns out to be disappointing, there will be much more reasons for a serious decline in the dollar. While the weakness of the dollar is reflected only in the growth of prices for raw materials, primarily oil and gold, the dollar continues to hold positions in the foreign exchange market but this happens primarily because of serious problems in other currency areas.
EURUSD pair
Eurozone's weak data on industrial production in December contributed to a decline in the euro but did not lead to a revaluation of GDP growth in fourth. In 2018, economic growth was 0.2% with an annualized rate of 1.2%. In conclusion, the result fully coincided with forecasts.
The euro is saved from a large-scale decline by the unexpected weakness of the dollar, but even in this case, a further decline is most likely to happen on Friday. EUR/USD may decline to 1.1230/35 by the end of the day.
GBPUSD pair
Theresa May suffered another defeat because the vote in parliament, even though it was indicative, shows that there is no coalition behind it. The pound is under strong pressure, as the data on producer prices and consumer inflation published the day before were worse than expected.
The pound is under strong pressure. Today, a corrective growth is possible to 1.2840 / 45, although the GBP/USD pair will most likely end the week with another low. A decline to 1.2730 will not surprise anyone.
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