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For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 97 points. As a result, it had a stagnation-rollback in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a pulsed upward trend, where the quotation reached values of 1.3076-1.3108. After that, the phase of stagnation with rollback came. On the other hand, the news and news background had two important events at once. The first was the meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels, which did not yield any results once again. Following the talks, Theresa May in her traditions stated that she had a constructive meeting with Chairman Juncker, stressing that it was necessary to make such legally binding changes to the backstop mechanism that would guarantee that it would not be endless. This is what is needed for the transaction to be approved by the House of Commons. However, it should be understood that the decision of the EU regarding the agreement remained the same. The second important event was the publication of the protocol of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, which, as expected, did not contain any harsh statements regarding monetary policy. Thus, there was no protocol for the market.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we have fairly broad statistics from the United States, which in general is not so bad. The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits is reduced from 1.7373K to 1.740K. In turn, the volume of orders for durable goods shows an increase of 1.7%, as well as, in principle, sales in the secondary housing market last January showed an increase from 4.99M to 5.01M.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote draws amplitude wagging within 1.3020 / 1.3100, having actually a stagnation-rollback. It is likely to assume that this oscillation is likely to continue, with the extension of the framework to 1.3000 / 1.3100, wherein traders will stretch from pending orders in order to break the boundaries.
Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let us consider them:
- We consider buying positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3115, with the prospect of a move to 1.3200.
- We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing lower than 1.3000, with a prospect of 1.2950 (the first point).
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF ), we see that there is an upward interest against the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 21 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 61 points. In case of breakdown of the existing stagnation, volatility can increase, reaching an average daily rate.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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