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For the last trading day, the currency pair Euro / Dollar once again showed low volatility with 40 points. As a result, the quote remained within the previously formed cluster. From the point of view of technical analysis, we can see how the quote clung to the upper boundary of the cluster of 1.1370 (1.1320 / 1.1370), forming there a two-digit stagnation of Doji type candles. The news background did not have any statistics from Europe. The only thing that can be singled out is the volume of commodity stocks in the USA wholesale warehouses, which grew by 1.1%, which indicates the risk of a production crisis. The information background is developing on the hype about the possible postponement of Brexit, where the European Council President Donald Tusk has already spoken: " I believe, that the EU is waiting for the chaotic Brexit. It will be necessary to prolong the negotiations, since there is no unity in the House of Commons. I explained this to Ms. May, but she apparently continues to believe that she will be able to convince the deputies without delay. "
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, there is a lull again on the news, but the focus of the traders is the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May. Speculators are waiting for clarification regarding the possible delay, and whether it is a play of words. Of course, if the postponement really takes place, then we will see a local growth both in pound and in euro against the background of emotions.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation is trying to work out the upper limit of the cluster 1.1370, forming the first downward candle after stagnation. It is likely to assume that the amplitude fluctuation within the range of 1.1320 / 1.1370 will continue, where traders carefully analyze the punctures and breakdowns of the existing boundaries.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- We consider buy positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.1375, with the prospect of a move to 1.1400-1.1440.
- Positions for sale are considered in two versions: First, aggressive, work is carried out within the range with the prospect of a move to the lower border of 1.1320; The second, conservative, is waiting for a fixation lower than 1.1320 (no puncture shadow). Perspective 1.1300 - 1.2880 --- 1.1250.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, there has been a downward interest against the background of working out the upper limit of the cluster. Intraday and mid-term prospects still maintain an upward interest.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 26, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 22 points. At the time of Teresa May's speech, volatility may increase, but if rhetoric leads nowhere, then volatility will continue to develop within the current cluster.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1340 *; 1,1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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