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Over the past trading day, the currency pair British pound/ US dollar showed volatility just below the daily average of 103 points, as a result of continuing the fluctuation in a given framework. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation has clamped itself within the framework of 1.3170 / 1.3220, consistently working out the boundaries. As discussed earlier, the background information in the storm of passion Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May was literally suspended from the Brexit deal. At the same time, the Cabinet said that the government would not withdraw article 50. Thus, we will respect the results of the 2016 referendum and will work with the parliament to approve the deal that will ensure our withdrawal from the European Union.
Today, the primary event is the election in the British Parliament, where it is literally incomprehensible what will be the voting be about: adoption of an agreement; Brexit cancellation; exit without a transaction; or a new referendum. At the same time, the head of government, Theresa May, will speak at a meeting today by 20:00 Moscow time in the so-called "Committee of 1922", which unites ordinary members of the Conservative Party, where she may call her date of resignation.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote continues to move within 1.3170 / 1.3220. It is likely to assume a temporary preservation of the current amplitude oscillation, but until the news about Brexit flies out. After that, we will wait for impulse moves. Traders, in turn, occupy waiting positions and focusing their attention on the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1.3170 / 1.3220 cluster.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions for the purchase of traders are considered in the case of a clear price fix higher than 1.3250 (not a puncture).
- Positions for the selling of traders are considered in the case of a clear price fix lower than 1.3170 (not a puncture).
At the same time, we should listen to the information background, which clearly tells the direction of the speculators.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the background of convergence with the lower boundary of the cluster in the short and intraday perspective. On the other hand, the medium-term perspective has changed interest from ascending to neutral. It should be understood that the price is within the cluster, and intraday indicators on smaller TFs can vary arbitrarily.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 27 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 48 points. The volatility of the day will directly depend on the information background. Thereby, monitoring media sources is necessary, since the volatility can be high.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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