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By the end of the last trading week, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 134 points, as a result having a splash to the predicted level of 1.3000. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a downward movement towards the direction of the predicted level of 1.3000, where after reaching the quote slowed down and formed a rollback. On the other hand, the information and the news background ended the week with complete confusion about the ill-fated Brexit. Theresa May requested a postponement from the EU once again. At the same time, Donald Tusk, who does not have full authority, speaks of a possible delay for the year for England. But also a person who knows what he says, Jean-Claude Juncker says clearly said there will be no further postponement unless Britain accepts the existing agreement by April 12. Here, we have such a circus and, in principle, from the point of view of the trading schedule everything is fine. However, the pound has been declining for some time.
The week begins, so to speak, with an empty economic calendar. The main stream of news that traders are waiting for will be from Wednesday. At the same time, we should not forget about the information background, which will spontaneously continue to take off on the market, giving a new round of volatility.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the pullback from the level of 1.3000 led us to the level of 1.3070, but then there is an attempt to restore short positions. If we consider the general background that we have, it becomes clear that there is nothing good about a pound. Thus, the primary judgment is decomposed in the format of fluctuations of the levels of 1.3000 / 1.3070, where we follow the information background and follow clear fixations lower than 1.3000.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- As discussed in the previous review, traders considered buying positions when they reached the level of 1.3000. ow, working on the rebound has already been made, and if we do not have deals, then it is better not to hurry and consider them only if the price is fixed higher than 1.3080.
- Traders sold positions for sale were still from the level of 1.3150, as a result of reaching the predicted level of 1.3000, see previous reviews. Now, here's the deal, the primary course is, in principle, can be considered from the level of 1.3040, in the direction of 1.3000. The main move will be considered only after a clear fixation of the price lower than 1.3000, with the support of the information background.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(April 8 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 47 points. Although there is not much on the news, no one has canceled the information background. For this reason, I do not exclude that, according to tradition, the volatility of the day will be close to the daily average.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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