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By the end of the last trading week, the euro / dollar currency pair showedan extremely low volatility of 29 points, but this was enough to keep the downward interest. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have the preservation of short positions, where the previously passed level of 1.1180 served as a result of a strengthening point (see chart). Now I propose to consider the schedule in general terms, what have we seen for three weeks? That's right, a corrective move from the 1.1100 range level, and what we have now is a recovery of more than 70%, which means that the downward trend has been maintained on a global scale. We go further, and now let's talk about the uttermost uncertainty, which rather strongly influences the information and news background. On Friday, data on inflation in Europe were published, where we saw an acceleration from 1.4% to 1.7%, and in general terms everything is not so bad. What result? The decline of the euro, the reason - the divorce proceedings under the name "Brexit", which pulls over all interest and removes all other news, in particular statistics, into the background.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any statistics on Europe and the United States, thereby continuing to go on about the fear of uncertainty.
Looking ahead, I would like to remind you that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a report on the growth of threats to the stability of the financial system of the United States on the night of May 20 to 21 (02:00 Moscow time), and in light of the recent mutual increase in customs duties between the United States and China, Powell's words can seriously affect the market. For this reason, be careful about leaving your trading positions on the market if you decide not to close them by the end of the day.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see the preservation of the downward interest, where the quote has already overcome the low of the end of last week. What to expect next? Traders are already actively discussing the growing overheating of short positions, but still the inertial move, albeit with low volatility, remains. Thus, one should not exclude further movement towards the main points 1.1135 (local minimum of May 3 - in the form of lumbago), 1.1112 - the point of the main support.
Based on the available information, it is possible to expand a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Buy positions are considered in several ways: first, bearish interest, decreases at the current stage, and in the case of price fixing higher than 1.1190, buy positions are laid; The second option is considered in a deeper decline, in the case of a slowdown in the range of 1.1112.
- The positions for sale were initially considered in the area of 1.1155, where, in principle, the quote now wags. If we do not have deals, then we take the current minimum and we consider entry below it. The first priority is 1.1135, then 1.1112.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short term, intraday and medium term, there is still a downward interest on the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 20, based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 17 points. The probability that the volatility of the day will remain low is, of course, great, but do not forget that at the time of the Fed's speech at night, volatility may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1180; 1.1180; 1,1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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