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EUR/USD – 4H.
Yesterday, the euro/dollar pair performed a return to the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177), after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, a retreat from this level and a reversal in favor of the US currency. As a result, on May 22, the process of falling of quotations can be continued towards retracement level of 127.2% (1.1102). Despite the bullish divergence, traders again showed a very weak desire to buy the euro. This is exactly what the rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0% indicates. Important news affecting the euro or the dollar did not appear yesterday. In general, the desire of traders to actively trade is low. Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will still work in favor of the euro and will allow traders to expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). Today will be an important speech by ECB President Mario Draghi. This will happen at 07:30 GMT. Mario Draghi can touch on issues of monetary policy, trade relations with America and other important issues, and traders can note the opening of purchases or sales, which will lead to increased activity in the Forex market.
The Fibo grid built on the extremums of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to show a desire to continue the process of falling (rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0%) towards the level of 1.1102. Thus, I recommend selling the euro for this purpose, with a protective order above the Fibo level of 100.0%. I recommend buying the pair after the close above retracement level of 100.0% to the level of 1.1241.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The pound/dollar quotes returned to the retracement level of 38.2% (1.2765), rebound from it and turn in favor of the US currency. The picture is identical to the picture of the euro/dollar pair. The sellers of the pound keep the market in their hands. Yesterday's outburst of emotions could be just an accident, an attempt of buyers to quickly and sharply change the trend for the pair. Thus, on May 22, the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue falling in the direction of the retracement level of 23.6% (1.2639). I draw your attention to the release of news about inflation and the retail price index for April in the UK today. The inflation forecast is high – 2.2%, which may cause a new demand for the pound sterling. Although the US currency still looks much stronger, mainly due to the situation around Brexit.
The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
The hourly chart for GBP/USD also shows the resumption of the fall after the growth to the nearest Fibo level. However, on the hourly chart, the further fall of the pound/dollar pair depends on the willingness and ability of traders to close under the retracement level of 161.8% (1.2673). If the closure is completed, the fall will continue in the direction of the retracement level of 200.0% (1.2554). Theresa May said yesterday that the second referendum on Brexit is possible, but there are a lot of different "ifs" for its holding. And of course, the main condition for its implementation should be the adoption of its agreement by the Parliament in the first reading. Thus, traders did not consider this speech as a positive moment for the pound sterling and are preparing for new sales of the weakest currency of 2019.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair continues the process of falling, so I recommend to sell the pair with the target of 1.2554 with the stop loss order above the level of 161.8% with the target of 1.2554. I recommend buying the pair in very small volumes at the rebound from the Fibo level of 161.8% (hourly chart) with a target of 1.2782 and a protective order at the level of 161.8%.
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