29.05.201908:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fight over pound: 10 candidates for the premiership and one Brexit

The British currency is still under pressure from political uncertainty. Slowing down its fall, the pound paired with the dollar froze in anticipation of news impulses that will be associated primarily with personnel policies in Downing Street and the prospects for the June vote for the draft of Brexit deal.

After the resonant (but expected) statement of Theresa May about the imminent resignation, the situation did not stabilize. Moreover, the tangle of contradictions was even more confused, taking into account the political struggle for the premiership. Already 10 conservatives have declared their desire to sit in the chair of the British government and many of them are political heavyweights. Thus, some intrigue remains despite Johnson's leading position. Each of the applicants has his own vision of future relations with Brussels, but all of them are united by one thought: Brexit must take place at all costs. The categorical rhetoric of some candidates (including Johnson) scares traders, which is why the pound is not in demand. Not only when paired with the dollar but throughout the market (for example, in May, the British lost more than 300 dollars) points).

As I have already said above, the post of Prime Minister is claimed by 10 politicians, who all (without exception) held or occupy public positions. Just yesterday, the head of the British Home Office, Sajid Javid, and the Minister of Regional Affairs and Local Government Kit Malthouse, entered the election race. Before them, some expressed their desire to become the successor to May including the Environment Minister Michael Gove, Minister of Health Matt Hancock, Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, ex-Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, Ex-leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leedsom, Ex-Minister of Labor and Pensions Security Esther McVey, former Brexit Minister Dominic Raab and lastly, Secretary of International Development Rory Stewart.

Boris Johnson is considered a favorite in the inner-party political race. Its position relative to Brexit is distinguished by a known toughness. Last week, he stated that he did not support the idea of a repeated referendum and would not ask Brussels for another postponement, citing political changes in the country. Johnson stressed that the epic "divorce process" should end on October 31 - in one form or another. Although, he personally prefers to make a deal with Brussels. Despite such "peace-loving" intentions, the former foreign minister is unlikely to make any concessions to Europe, while the Europeans have already stated beforehand their categorical refusal to revise the terms of the agreement. Therefore, the appointment of Johnson will increase the likelihood of "hard" Brexit and this scenario does not exclude Boris himself.

Environment Minister Michael Gove, one of the contenders for the premiership, is a collaborator of Johnson and largely (almost all) shares his position, including on the prospects for Brexit. Another candidate is the former Minister of Labor and Pensions Esther McVey - takes a tough position regarding Brussels. It admits the option of withdrawing from the EU without an agreement, "unless Europe makes serious concessions" (which naturally not). By the way, she left Theresa May's government last year after a disagreement with the Prime Minister about the negotiation process with the European Union. Brexit ex-minister Dominic Raab is ready to withdraw from the EU without an agreement. He also left Theresa May's Cabinet due to disagreements with her over the Irish border regime (backstop).

The remaining candidates for the prime minister's position are more liberal regarding Brexit's prospects. For example, Interior Minister Sajid Javid stated the need to conclude a deal with Brussels, and Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt even considers the hard Brexit to be "political suicide." The Minister for International Development, Rory Stewart, promised to reach a compromise agreement with Brussels, stating that he would leave his post if Boris Johnson was elected, as he categorically disagreed with his position. Health Minister Matt Hancock also agrees to make certain concessions to Brussels, advocating a "moderate exit scenario from the EU." According to him, a compromise is needed to carry out the project through parliament.

Former leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leeds left her post in protest against the idea of May to hold a second referendum (or rather, to give deputies the opportunity to vote for this idea). At the same time, she is a supporter of further negotiations, primarily within the parliament, distancing as far as possible from the scenario of the tough Brexit. The Minister for Regional Affairs and Local Government, Keith Malthouse, is in favor of extending the transition period to negotiate "alternative agreements" with Northern Ireland.

Thus, all contenders for the premiership post are conditionally divided into two camps. Some are in favor of a "tough" Brexit (or rather, they allow this option), while others take a softer (liberal) position. In general, such a division reflects the existing split within the Conservative Party, since there is also no consensus among its members regarding a way out of the current impasse. Despite the clear leadership of Boris Johnson, it is still early to speak about his unconditional victory. British policy sometimes brings surprising surprises.