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The heightened fear that the aggressive US trade policy will lead to a sharp slowdown in the growth of the global economy has a negative effect on investor sentiment around the world.
"The likelihood that the United States will introduce new duties or take regular measures to restrict trade with other countries. The trading practices of which they find unfair increases. Not only China and Mexico but also India and even Japan can become Washington's next targets," said by the chief economist of Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp, Takayuki Nogami.
"Optimism about the resumption of global growth led by China in the first months of the year was a mistake," said Morgan Stanley strategist, James Lord.
According to some estimates, the capitalization of the world's stock markets collapsed by almost $5 trillion last month.
Markets showed the worst result for May since 2010, when the US exchanges experienced a 10 percent crash, which went down in history as a "flash crash".
"The conclusion of a Washington and Beijing trade deal seems unlikely in the near future, and in the short term, the risk of a fall in the S & P 500 index is increasing because the market has not really dropped," said by RBC Capital Markets, Lori Kalvasina.
"If an agreement is not reached, then only the Fed will be able to save the situation by easing the monetary rate," experts of Merian Global Investors believe.
Apparently, the regulator is faced with a rather difficult task: on the one hand, it is necessary to demonstrate independence, and on the other hand, one cannot subordinate his policy to market fluctuations in the stock market. It is possible that the Central Bank will adhere to a patient approach to the last.
Meanwhile, the market for futures on the Fed rate is already laying in the quotes three declines in September, December 2019 and March next year.
It should be recognized that the tightening of the trade war is caused by objective reasons, such as imbalances accumulated over the decades in global trade and in the global debt market. It is assumed that the situation will continue to deteriorate in general. The agreements that have already been reached will be called into question and as a result, new disputes will arise.
As the trade war becomes a reality for the long term, now it makes sense to pay attention to assets with universal demand or weak dependence on US-China duties.
In particular, strategists at investment bank JP Morgan Chase recommend increasing long positions in the yen, which acts as a defensive asset and allows you to hedge against the global economic downturn.
In addition to the yen, they advise them to choose the Swiss franc as a safe haven currency.
According to the bank's experts, the franc demonstrates better dynamics than the yen. The statistical probability of its strengthening at this moment is higher in the face of a weakening of the monetary policy of the Fed.
The "defensive" currency portfolio recommended by JP Morgan Chase strategists implies not only selling the dollar against the yen, but also short positions in EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/USD pairs.
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