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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed another rebound from the correction level of 50.0% (1.1278) and a reversal in favor of the US dollar. As a result, on July 16, the pair began a new fall in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% (1.1238). Yesterday, there were no interesting data from the European Union or America. Traders continue to discuss the possible reduction of the Fed's key rate at the meeting at the end of this month, as well as the possible reduction of the ECB rate at the meeting, which will be held a week earlier. However, these events are still far away. Today, the US will receive information about retail sales and industrial production. And these two reports will answer one very important question. Namely, does the country continue with a period of weak statistics, or did June simply turn out to be so unsuccessful? Today, we will know the answer to this question. Also today, the Fed Chairman will make a speech at the G7 summit, where he can again touch on the topic of monetary policy, the topic of rate cuts, and the topic of threats to the US economy coming from trade conflicts. However, the growth of the euro/dollar pair in the current conditions is possible only after the closing of quotations above the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1278).
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the correction level of 50.0% (1.1278). I recommend selling the pair with a target at 1.1238, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1278. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.1278 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1238 if the rebound from the correction level of 38.2% is performed.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar without any signal and started the process of returning to the correction level of 100.0% (1.2437). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. The fall of the pound sterling began after yesterday's information about the publication of classified information from the British Ambassador to the United States. Now, London faces a break in diplomatic ties with Washington, although this is still too radical a measure, even for Donald Trump, who was exposed in an unpleasant light in the published correspondence. Today we will listen, by the way, not only to Jerome Powell but also to the Chairman of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which will be a very important event on the eve of the meeting of the regulator, as it may shed light on possible changes in monetary policy. At the moment, no changes are expected, and traders, in general, continue to sell the English currency, seeing no prospects for a decent completion of Brexit. Moreover, there are still no signs of simply completing Brexit. The European Union has previously hinted at the willingness to move Brexit once again. And the situation for the pound remains catastrophic. The closing of the pound/dollar pair under the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2437) will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% (1.2185).
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair returned to the correction level of 100.0% (1.2506). A new rebound from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.2571). The consolidation of quotations below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of a continued fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.2430).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair performed a fall towards the Fibonacci level of 100.0%. I recommend selling the pair with a target at 1.2430, with a stop-loss order above the level of 1.2506, if the closing is completed below the level of 100.0%. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.2571 if it will be rebounded from a Fibo level of 100.0% and with a stop-loss level of 1.2506 (hourly chart).
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