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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% (1.1187), after the third rebound from the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1278). In the euro/dollar pair, everything is still calm. All the attention of traders is now focused on the UK, but this week, there will be events that are extremely important for the euro currency. Of course, we are talking about the meeting of the European Central Bank, the speech of its Chairman Mario Draghi. Recently, the ECB gave clear signals to the foreign exchange market that the issue of reducing the rate and easing monetary policy has almost been resolved. Moreover, now that the name of Mario Draghi's successor is known, many experts believe that Draghi will want to carry out several resonant actions in the last months of his reign. This is a reduction in the rate in the negative zone, this is the resumption of the quantitative simulation program. What Christine Lagarde will do with this is still unclear. But traders clearly understand the real state of the economy of the European Union, if the ECB decides to lower the rate with 0.0%. It is also extremely important what Mr. Draghi will say at the press conference. It is important for the euro, which during this week will try to perform a fall to the correction level of 0.0% (1.1107). What can support the euro in the next 5 days is quite difficult to imagine.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation below the correction level of 38.2% (1.1238). I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1187, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1238. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.1238 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1187 if it will be rebounded from a correction level of 23.6%.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair, after the formation of the bearish divergence, continues to fall on July 22 in the direction of the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.2437). The retreat of quotations from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the pound and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661). However, the events of this week can equally support the pound and send it to conquer new lowlands. Everything will depend on who will win the election for the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain tomorrow. The victory of Boris Johnson will not have such a resonance as originally expected. The British Parliament hedged in this case and passed a bill according to which Johnson cannot stop the work of Parliament, cannot decide to leave the EU alone. And the Parliament will probably block such an initiative, as it was under Theresa May. Boris Johnson himself feels that if he wins the election, the campaign promises will need to be fulfilled. And how to fulfill them, if the EU does not want to change the terms of the agreement, wants to postpone Brexit to a later date, and Brexit without a deal will be blocked by Parliament? In general, the political sphere of the UK raises a huge number of questions, and the answers to them are very difficult to find. All this has a negative impact on the pound sterling, which the forex market simply does not want to buy. Tomorrow, July 23, we will at least know the name of the new British leader.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a consolidation at the correction level of 100.0% (1.2506), which allows us to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2430). There is no emerging divergence in any indicator. Closing the pair above the correction level of 100.0% will work in favor of the English currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.2571).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The currency pair GBP/USD closed below 100.0%. Thus, I recommend selling the pair today with a target of 1.2430, with a stop-loss order above the level of 1.2506. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2571 if the closing is performed above the level of 1.2506, and with the stop-loss order below the level of 100.0% (hourly chart).
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