05.08.201906:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 5, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the dollar index fell by 0.29%, and with it the euro grew by 21 points. Officially, that is, according to information from the largest business publications, the dollar weakened due to worse than expected employment data in the US, which sharply increased the market expectation of a September rate cut to 97% from 83% in one day and 60% from a week earlier. But employment data actually came out good. Outside the agricultural sector, an expected 164 thousand jobs were added in July, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% with an expectation of 3.6%, but the broad unemployment assessment index dropped from 7.2% to 7.0%, and the share of the economically active population increased from 62.9% to 63.0% and the average hourly wage in July increased by 0.3% against the forecast of 0.2%. The weak point in the report of the Ministry of Labor may be the revision of the NFP for the previous month from 224 thousand to 193 thousand. The quality of employment is good - 16 thousand jobs were created in the manufacturing sector against the forecast of 5 thousand. Thus, we don't see a connection between Friday's data and rising expectations for a rate cut. Apparently, it was a technical correction - taking profits against the data, because from the new week the Treasury will once again begin massive public debt allocations, and this week will be offered $84 billion of long-term securities and 78 billion of short-term securities maturing in 13 and 26 weeks - the investor needs a currency to buy bonds. In total, the government plans to attract 430 billion dollars in the 3rd quarter, and such a large supply will soon increase the demand for dollars and, as a result, its strengthening. At the same time, the media is intensifying the promotion of the idea of taking into account the September rate cut in current prices.

Thus, we do not expect counter-dollar currencies to grow on any other news background, it will only be needed for strategic buyers of the dollar to have incoming cash (euro buyers) for their transactions. We can only say that this scenario is repeated from year to year during the period of strategic public debt allocations, and now it is such a period. Indeed, furthermore, a rate cut in September is far from having a 97% probability, which Powell tried to tell us at the press conference, but the markets clearly didn't want to listen.

The technical limit for the euro's growth could be the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.1155), that is, the level from which the sales of the euro began at the ECB meeting last week.

On the four-hour chart, the price went above the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator line went into the zone of positive numbers, this output may become false in case of a reversal from current levels. In general, we are waiting for the completion of the observed correction and the euro to further decline to 1.0980 - Fibonacci level of 138.2%.