19.08.201907:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on August 19th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson may resign, what does this mean for the pound?

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 146.7962

Well, the media is actively exaggerating the theme of the conspiracy in the British Parliament, initiated by Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn against Boris Johnson, the current Prime Minister. There is only one reason – to protect the country from the insidious plans of Johnson for an uncontested exit from the EU on October 31. Without exaggeration, we can say that Johnson not only spent 100 million pounds on advertising the "hard" Brexit and informing the population about its essence but also plunged the population into shock. We have already written that the British are preparing for a "hard" Brexit almost as well as Armageddon, buying medicines, food, and essentials. Also, the government document "Yellowhammer", which was published on the weekend, shows that with the supply of many goods, food and fuel can be interruptions after October 31. In light of all this, Jeremy Corbyn said he wants to form a provisional government, which is ready to head for a few months to declare a vote of no confidence in Johnson and prevent Brexit without agreements. This will be followed by new elections of the Prime Minister, but it is too early to talk about it. According to some reports, some parties approve of Corbyn's initiatives, even some conservatives are ready to support him, as clearly aware of what the consequences will be for the country if Johnson implements his plan. Thus, we have to wait for the resumption of the work of the Parliament, and we are waiting for the "hot autumn". In any case, Boris Johnson can become the first Prime Minister who will work no more than 2-3 months. Well, for the pound sterling, all this means only new shocks. Hopes for the growth of the British pound will be possible only when there are real opportunities to displace Johnson. After that, the probability of a "hard" Brexit will significantly decrease, which will support the pound. Until that moment, the British currency will remain in a state of "thrown out of the plane at an altitude of 11,000 feet."

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2146

S2 – 1.2115

S3 – 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2177

R2 – 1.2207

R3 – 1.2238

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair formally continues its upward movement. Thus, it is even possible to consider long positions with targets at 1.2177 and 1.2207, but with minimum lots. It will be possible to sell the pound sterling after fixing the pair below the moving average, which will return the initiative to the bears in the forex market.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.