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Last week turned out to be favorable for the US currency. The dollar recovered against key competitors with the exception of the pound. Reports from the United States confirmed the recent statements by the head of the Fed regarding the sustainability of the economy. However, they are not reducing the likelihood of further policy easing in the United States. Markets are estimating a 100% likelihood of a reduction in rates by 25 bps in September. It seems that it will be difficult for dollar fans to keep control over the market.
It is worth noting that while the majority of the Federal Reserve officials did not give clear hints of an early softening of the policy. When the signals of the central bank contradict market expectations, financiers, as a rule, begin to become active in terms of appearances. Now this is not noticeable. Perhaps this has something to do with the Jackson Hole symposium, where they will catch up.
The symposium can be an ideal platform for adjusting market expectations. The mood of traders and investors will depend on the words of Jerome Powell. In addition to the head of the regulator, other officials will speak at this event. Before the symposium, the market will pay attention to the publication of the minutes of the sensational July meeting.
If it turns out that FOMC members advocate lowering rates next month, the US central bank will have to downplay the impact of rising costs and retail sales. It is possible that some FOMC representatives will openly declare the need to soften their policies, although in July the majority was against such a move. There have been some changes since then. In this situation, a full portion of the negative will receive such pairs as USD/JPY and USD/CHF.
Bulls on the dollar will be happy if financial officials focus on improving macroeconomic statistics. The US currency will receive support, as this will be a hint that the regulator will postpone rate cuts.
The euro, which fell against the dollar during 4 of the last 5 sessions, is doing poorly. Data on the eurozone were mostly weak. If it goes on like this, the main pair risks breaking the 1.10 mark. The expected market data on business activity in the region may disappoint.
However, at the end of last week, the single currency was supported by important news from Germany. The German government is preparing to expand public spending in the event of a recession. Monetary stimulation will certainly improve the situation, but before the authorities of Germany announce concrete steps, a month will pass, and maybe more. During this time, the ECB will have time to reduce the rate. The dynamics of the euro will depend on the nature of the incentive measures.
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