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The single European currency, and even the pound, fell into the hands of politicians again. While the entire financial world was discussing the possible consequences of an attack on oil plants in Saudi Arabia, Brexit was again remembered in Europe. Boris Johnson met with Jean-Claude Juncker, and as a result, these negotiations can be called useless. Once again, the parties were unable to come to any compromise. Moreover, if you carefully read the press release published by the European Commission, it becomes clear that all the efforts of Great Britain are completely useless, since Europe does not intend to make at least some changes to the agreement, which the British parliament has already rejected three times. The text of the official statement focuses on the fact that any proposals by the United Kingdom should be consistent with Backstop's goals. In other words, The European Union insists that after Brexit, Northern Ireland will remain in a single European market, until the parties develop a full complement to the divorce agreement, which will specifically deal with trade and economic issues. At the same time, Europe itself insists that negotiations on this issue should begin only after Brexit. Thus, it turns out that the situation is hopeless for the United Kingdom, and no matter how many delays you ask, no British government can beat out an agreement from Brussels that would suit London's position. And whatever you say, this suggests that the unregulated Brexit is still not some kind of fantasy. After all, London, in fact, has no other option but to slam the door loudly.
However, the single European currency was losing its position more actively than the pound. Although unregulated by Brexit, Britain faces much more serious consequences. The whole point is precisely in the very incident in Saudi Arabia, since the United States immediately appointed Iran as a guilty party and threatened with rather serious consequences. It is clear that this refers to the introduction of new restrictions on the Iranian oil industry, where European companies are quite widely represented. Moreover, in the event of a complete ban on the purchase of Iranian oil, it is Europe that will suffer in the first place, which purchases part of the oil from the Islamic Republic. In other words, this threatens Europe not only with serious financial losses, but also with the possible occurrence of a shortage of energy resources.
Today is the last day you can prepare for tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations. So emotions and politics will gradually fade into the background. Usually this leads to the fact that investors begin to see clearly, and notice macroeconomic statistics. And by the way, data on industrial production in the United States will be published today. The growth rate of which should slow down from 0.5% to 0.2%. But if we also add to this certain forecasts for tomorrow's decision of the Federal Reserve System regarding the refinancing rate, then we should expect some stagnation. Usually, if everyone is waiting for a decision, then in front of him, quotes go in the opposite direction. And since they are waiting for a decrease in the refinancing rate, which should lead to a weakening dollar, then before the decision is announced, the dollar will strengthen. In this regard, the extremely weak state of industry will be a deterrent.
Industrial Production Growth Rate in the United States:
The EUR / USD pair did not focus for very long at 1.1100 / 1.1110, where it felt a periodic ceiling and, against the background of the information flow, returned to the area of the psychological level of 1.1000. The movement that we saw was built by three impulse candles, after which there was a characteristic stagnation in the form of a regrouping of trading forces. Considering everything that happens in general terms, we see that the conditional correction built on nine trading days is again trying to close, having a 50% working out.
In general, it is likely to assume that the downward interest will continue, where at the same time, there is the possibility of a temporary stop with an amplitude of 30-40 points, relative to the current values, due to escalating uncertainty associated with the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators on all the main time intervals took a downward position, against the background of the recent impulse move, paired with the current restraining interest.
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