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Another attempt to raise the British pound in the morning was unsuccessful following the release of data on the volume of retail sales in the UK. Growth gradually began to slow down in August, and even decreased compared with July, indicating another sign of weakness in the British economy.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, retail sales in August 2019 increased by 2.7% compared to the same period of the previous year after an increase of 3.4% in July. Compared with the previous month, retail sales fell 0.2% in August. All this once again confirms the fact of a more cautious approach of consumers on the threshold of the next date of the UK's exit from the EU, as well as increasing political uncertainty. The slowdown in the global economy also poses a threat to consumers.
Let me remind you that just recently, during his meeting with EU representatives, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to withdraw the country from the EU with or without an agreement at the end of October. However, the opposition and other members of Parliament are taking steps to prevent leaving the EU without a deal. A bill ruling out Brexit without an agreement was passed last week, but the UK government looks at it very differently.
Today, the Bank of England also left its key interest rate unchanged, as well as the volume of bond purchases.
According to the data, the key interest rate was kept at 0.75%, and this decision was made with a vote ratio of 9 to 0. The Bank of England still sees the need for a limited rate hike if Brexit goes smoothly and the global economy stabilizes. However, the reaction to a hard Brexit can have any direction.
The regulator also said in a statement that longer uncertainty around Brexit will only weaken economic growth and put pressure on inflation. As we remember, yesterday's inflation report indicated a slowdown in its growth.
A report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was published today, which downgraded the UK's growth forecast. The economy is expected to grow by only 1% this year and only 0.9% next year. If the UK leaves the EU without a trade agreement, the country's GDP may be reduced by 2% or more.
As for the forecast of the Bank of England, the UK economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and 2020.
From a technical point of view, nothing has changed in GBPUSD. The resistance of 1.2505 is still a problem for bulls, the breakthrough of which will provide the market with new buyers able to update the local highs in the area of 1.2550 and 1.2600. If in the near future the bulls will not be able to regain the level of 1.2505, it is likely another bearish correction in the area of this week's low 1.2395.
EURUSD
The European currency has managed to slightly strengthen its position after the data on the current account balance of the balance of payments, but trade continues to be conducted within the weekly side channel, exit from which is possible only when major players appear in the market.
According to a report by the European Central Bank, the current account surplus in the eurozone grew to 21 billion euros in July this year from 18 billion euros in June. The total positive current account balance of the eurozone balance of payments for the year was 2.7% of GDP compared to 3.3% in the previous 12 months.
From a technical point of view, nothing serious has happened on the market. Only a breakthrough of the peak in the region of 1.1080 will cause larger purchases of the trading instrument, which will lead to an update of the levels of 1.1110 (last week's high) and 1.1150. Under the EURUSD decline scenario, the support will be at the level of 1.0990, and larger areas are already located at the lows of this month in the areas of 1.10950 and 1.0920.
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